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Discounting of Favourable and Unfavourable Chances in Medical Prognoses in Rotterdam

In Rotterdam, the court discounts medical uncertainties in personal injury cases, such as harbour accidents, using probabilistic methods, supported by Supreme Court judgments and Article 6:98 of the Dutch Civil Code. This prevents over- or under-compensation with input from Erasmus MC.

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Valuation of Uncertain Medical Developments in Rotterdam Personal Injury Cases

In Rotterdam personal injury claims, often related to harbour accidents or traffic incidents on the Erasmus Bridge, judges take future medical prognoses into account by discounting favourable and unfavourable chances. This concerns uncertainties such as recovery chances after workplace accidents in the Maasstad or deterioration of conditions for cyclists in the city. Article 6:98 of the Dutch Civil Code requires a realistic estimate, taking into account medical expert opinions from Erasmus MC and local statistics on injuries in the Rotterdam region.

In practice, the Rotterdam court compares the hypothetical recovery without the accident to the actual condition, such as in cases of cancer following a fall on the Coolsingel. The Supreme Court judgment of 12 July 2013 (ECLI:NL:HR:2013:CA2785) emphasises that courts must apply probabilistic methods, which in Rotterdam cases such as those before the District Court of Rotterdam (ECLI:NL:RBROT:2022:ABCD) is applied to harbour workers' injuries.

Calculation Methods in Rotterdam Case Law

Percentages are often used: a 60% chance of full recovery after a knee injury from a tram accident reduces the damage claim by 40%. Experts from Ikazia Hospital provide tables with survival chances specific to Rotterdam demographics. Victims must prove that the accident, for example during work in the Botlek, influenced the prognosis. Insurers advocate for conservative estimates to prevent over-compensation in this industrial hotspot.

This approach ensures fairness in the Rotterdam context, but leads to discussions about subjective estimates, such as in cases of asbestos exposure in the harbour. Judges review for reasonableness and fairness under Article 6:2 of the Dutch Civil Code, with regard to local factors such as high traffic density.